New Zealand’s economy has been struggling for some time now, with GDP falling in the June quarter 2024 and GDP per capita not increasing since the September 2022 quarter. High interest rates, inflation, and cost of living pressures have created real challenges for both consumers and businesses, and we continue to see this reflected in our BDO Business Wellbeing Index.
Record low numbers of business leaders are feeling positive about their overall business performance (51%) and their current business financial performance (35%) all or most of the time during the past two weeks. These scores are the lowest measures recorded since our first BDO Business Wellbeing Index survey in May 2022.
Taking a closer look at the key drivers of negative business performance sentiment, external economic and political factors are the main pressure points for New Zealand business leaders. Future sentiment for these two measures (in six months’ time) remains low, indicating that business leaders anticipate the stronger economy and political progress promised by the National Government to be a longer term play.
Cash flow, financial performance, and workload round out the bottom five business performance measures. It’s clear that the nation’s sluggish economy is filtering through to the financial performance of local businesses. As a result of this, workloads may be getting higher as businesses take on more work with fewer resources in a bid to save money.
While current cash flow and financial performance sentiment are down for New Zealand business leaders, their forward view is much more positive. The 34% of business leaders who currently feel positive about their cash flow jumps to 49% when thinking about the next six months, while the 35% figure for current financial performance leaps up to 54% expecting to feel positive in six months’ time. This suggests business leaders feel confident about their ability to improve the business measures that are at least somewhat within their control – while those out of their control, including external economic and political factors, continue to have low levels of positivity when looking into the future.
And while the economy will likely continue to be challenging for many business leaders, there is hope on the horizon. The September 2024 BusinessNZ Planning Forecast says there are bright spots for the New Zealand economy, including warmer business and consumer sentiment, reduced inflation, and falling interest rates. October’s OCR cash rate will be welcomed by many, and with inflation recently falling to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years, business leaders and consumers alike will be hoping for fewer economic pressures in the months and years to come.
Out of all the business performance metrics our survey covers, business leaders are feeling the most positive about their progress in meeting regulations and compliance, and their environmental and social impact on communities around them. This could indicate that businesses are making strides in their approach to climate matters and compliance – or it may be that with more immediate financial concerns to worry about, these more long-term regulatory matters are falling down the list of worries.